The EUR/USD pair is holding within a narrow range, with short-term dynamics shaped by weakening confidence in the dollar and instability on the euro side.
Possible technical scenarios:
As we can see on the daily EUR/USD chart, the pair continues consolidating in the upper part of the range between 1.1494 and 1.1738 corridor, where it may remain until stronger volatility drivers appear.
Fundamental drivers of volatility:
Recent events in Washington, where President Trump demanded the resignation of Fed member Lisa Cook over alleged mortgage fraud, added tension to markets.
Although Cook refused, stressing that the president has no authority to dismiss her, this attack on Fed independence increased doubts about the stability of US monetary policy. Markets interpret such pressure as a signal of potential acceleration in future rate cuts, limiting the dollar’s strength while fueling volatility.
The euro is also under strain: political instability in France prevents it from fully capitalizing on dollar weakness. Lack of support for Prime Minister Bayrou threatens a government crisis and rising Eurosceptic sentiment, undermining EU unity. On top of this, Trump’s threats of new tariffs against the EU add pressure. These factors make the euro vulnerable despite its attempts to advance.
Overall, the dollar struggles to show sustainable gains under White House pressure on the Fed and weak expectations for macro data (durable goods orders decline, consumer confidence drops). Meanwhile, the euro is weighed down by domestic political risks and threats of trade conflicts.
Intraday technical picture:
As evidenced by the 4H EUR/USD chart, the pair is pulling back to dotted support at 1.1589, from where it may rebound and retest resistance at 1.1738.
The GBP/USD pair is trading sideways as markets await key events from both the UK and the US.
Possible technical scenarios:
Judging by the unfolding situation on the daily chart, GBP/USD has fallen to the support zone of the range between 1.3436 and 1.3630, from where it may extend lower toward the dotted level at 1.3380. From there, an upward rebound and recovery are possible if fundamentals provide support.
Fundamental drivers of volatility:
Pressure on the pair is coming from dollar strength following Trump’s dismissal of Fed member Lisa Cook. Markets viewed this as a challenge to the Fed’s independence and a sign of possible restructuring to fit political goals. This has fueled uncertainty around the dollar, but in the short term, it has increased demand for it.
For the pound, focus is on the upcoming speech by Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Catherine Mann. Traders are seeking clues on further easing, but persistently rising UK inflation makes aggressive rate cuts less likely. Mann has previously opposed a cut, which could dampen expectations of strong easing.
With weak US labor market data and high expectations of a Fed rate cut in September, the dollar struggles to solidify its advantage. At the same time, with both the BoE remarks and US PCE inflation data ahead, GBP/USD continues to trade without a clear trend.
Intraday technical picture:
According to the 4H chart, the pair is fluctuating in the middle of the range between 1.3380 and 1.3588, from where it may head toward either boundary.
The USD/JPY pair is consolidating near 147.00 after rebounding from local lows triggered by Trump’s political pressure on the Fed.
Possible technical scenarios:
The daily chart shows that USD/JPY continues to trade within the range between 145.91 and 148.63, from where it may head toward either boundary.
Fundamental drivers of volatility:
The US President’s attempt to dismiss Lisa Cook raised concerns about the Fed’s independence and pushed the dollar lower, though it partially recovered after Cook refused to comply, and uncertainty around the regulator persisted.
Fundamentally, the dollar remains under pressure from expectations of policy easing: Jerome Powell’s recent speech reinforced market confidence in rate cuts, particularly against the backdrop of a weak labor market. This limits the USD’s growth potential despite temporary rebounds.
For the yen, supportive factors include comments from Bank of Japan Governor Ueda on inflation risks tied to wage growth, increasing the likelihood of another rate hike in Japan. Markets are also awaiting the US PCE index and Tokyo inflation data — results that could highlight further policy divergence in favor of the yen and cap growth in the pair.
Intraday technical picture:
As we can see on the 4H USD/JPY chart, the local trend remains uncertain as the price trades in the middle of the range between 145.91 and 148.63.
The USD/CAD pair continues to move sideways: the dollar is pressured by political instability and expectations of PCE inflation data, while the Canadian dollar finds support from the trade agenda and optimism of officials about a favorable outcome of negotiations.
Possible technical scenarios:
On the daily chart, USD/CAD has yet to exit the 1.3744–1.3861 range and has pulled back below resistance, from where it may head toward support. If the pair makes another attempt to break out and consolidate above 1.3861, the next growth target will be 1.4013.
Fundamental drivers of volatility:
The sideways movement reflects increased caution among traders. The US dollar appears vulnerable following political pressure on the Fed: Trump’s announcement of Lisa Cook’s dismissal raised doubts about the regulator’s independence and fueled concerns that future rate decisions may be politically influenced. The dollar index declined, showing investor unease despite attempts to recover after Powell’s dovish comments in Jackson Hole.
Focus is also on upcoming PCE inflation data, the Fed’s key gauge. Weak results would strengthen the case for a September rate cut, adding pressure to the dollar.
The Canadian currency is showing more stability, supported by upcoming talks between Minister Dominic LeBlanc and US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. The possibility of trade concessions and LeBlanc’s remarks about achieving a favorable deal add optimism and serve as a local support factor for the CAD.
Intraday technical picture:
Given the situation on the 4H USD/CAD chart, the pair has found support at 1.3813, marked with a dotted line. As long as the 1.3813–1.3861 corridor holds, the pair retains room to move from the upper boundary down toward support.
Gold is caught between political uncertainty in the US, which supports prices, and expectations of key macro data that could adjust its trajectory. In the meantime, demand for the safe-haven asset keeps the metal near local highs.
Possible technical scenarios:
On the daily chart, gold is trading in a narrowing range, forming a symmetrical triangle. In the medium term, an exit in either direction is possible. For now, the nearest target for growth is horizontal resistance at 3431.08.
Fundamental drivers of volatility:
Gold hit a two-week high on US political instability and growing expectations of Fed easing. Trump’s announcement of Lisa Cook’s dismissal undermined confidence in the Fed’s independence, while Jerome Powell’s dovish tone at the Jackson Hole symposium boosted investor expectations of a rate cut as early as September. This lowers the opportunity cost of holding gold and increases demand for the safe haven.
Short-term dynamics will be shaped by upcoming reports on consumer confidence, durable goods orders, and the Richmond Fed manufacturing index. More impactful releases — US Q2 GDP and the July PCE index — are due later in the week. Stronger numbers could support the dollar and slow gold’s rise, while weaker ones would reinforce rate cut expectations and sustain interest in the metal.
Intraday technical picture:
The formation of a bullish flag above 3347.47 on the 4H chart creates technical conditions for growth toward 3431.08, or at least a retest of the previous high at 3408.47.
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